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Introduction

managerial decision leader

The relevance of this research topic lies in the fact that in the process of managing any object, decision-making plays a special role. This is due to the fact that the development and effectiveness of any system depends on the correctness of the decision made. Decisions have an impact on the organization and its financial results.

The purpose of writing this course work is to study the place and role management decisions in management. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

· consider the concept and essence of management decisions

· study the classification of management decisions

· consider the stages of developing management decisions

· explore the management decision-making process

· study the role of the manager in the process of making management decisions

· explore the application of a scientific approach to the decision-making process

· consider methods and models for optimizing management decisions

The object of study in this course work is a management decision.

The subject of research in this course work is the role of management decisions in management.

This course work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a list of references.

1. Theoretical basis about management decisions

1.1 Concept and essence of management decisions

The practical need of society for the scientific basis of decision-making arose with the development of science and technology only in the 18th century. The founder of the theory of decision making is considered to be Joseph Louis Lagrange, who solved the problem: how much earth should a digger take on a shovel in order for his shift productivity to be greatest. The theory of rational decision making specifies exactly what the sequential procedures must be in order for a decision to meet the criteria of rationality.

Simon proposed the concepts of classical (normative) and administrative (descriptive) models of decision making (1947, 1958, 1960), and also introduced the concept of “bounded rationality,” which assumes that the manager stops at the first rational decision option. Various aspects of the administrative decision-making model were developed by James Fredrickson, James Dean and Mark Sherfman.

Thus, in the middle of the 20th century, a school of management was formed, the ideas of which were associated with the identification and assessment of factors affecting economic and management processes. A variety of external and internal environment, multidirectional interests of subjects economic activity in the management process determined the use by managers of different options for action (decisions). The management process began to be viewed as a certain sequence of actions by the manager and the management apparatus to develop, make and implement management decisions. The selection of solution options and their comparison became possible as a result of the use of modeling, expert forecasting, economic-mathematical and network methods.

A management decision is a creative process of a manager (or a group of managers) who determines the program of an enterprise’s activities to effectively resolve a problem based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the managed system and analysis of information about its state.

The organizational aspect of the solution is manifested in the organization of development and organization of the implementation of the task. In this case, the following functions are implemented:

The guiding function of the decision is manifested in the fact that it is made based on the long-term development strategy of the enterprise, is specified in a variety of tasks and is implemented by general management functions: planning, organization, control, motivation;

The coordinating role of the decision is reflected in the need to coordinate the actions of the performers to implement the decision within the approved time frame and of appropriate quality;

The motivating function of the decision is implemented through a system of organizational measures (orders, resolutions, regulations), economic incentives (bonuses, allowances), social assessments (moral and political factors of labor activity: personal self-affirmation, creative self-realization).

A management decision influences the achievement of goals and strategies, the development and implementation of programs and activity plans, the functioning of the management system, the implementation of innovation, investment, production and marketing processes. The efficiency of the enterprise’s activities depends on the quality of its preparation, which is determined by the degree of effectiveness of the management influence of the subject of management on the object of management, the organization of the implementation of management decisions and control over their implementation.

The decision-making problem is of a fundamental nature, which is determined by the role that decisions play in the field of management activities. A management decision as a category of management expresses the essence of the process of influence of the control system (subject) on the managed system (object), which ultimately leads to the achievement of the goal. This circumstance emphasizes the determining place of management decisions in the management process.

The managerial decision is determined by the versatility of management relations inherent in the socio-economic system. Therefore, its essence is also multifaceted and interconnected with such categories as the management system, management functions (related to management methodology and technology), management process, processes of influence and interaction (Fig. 1).

Rice. 1 Decision making as a product of managerial work

In this case, the management decision acts as a link between groups of functions that reflect the processes of influence: the managing and managed parts of the socio-economic system (Fig. 2.). The essence of the influence process is expressed in the intensification of joint activities of people to achieve common goal as a result of the implementation of basic management functions. External relations and the implementation of the organization’s external capabilities are essential.

Rice. 2 The place of management decisions in the management process

The management decision made to achieve the goal is considered:

· as a management process and its result;

· as a conscious and purposeful activity carried out by a manager;

· as a process of intensifying joint activities of people;

· as a process of interaction between individual links of the socio-economic system;

· as a process and result of the intellectual, emotional, psychological and organizational-legal activity of a manager in choosing a rational option for action;

· as a phenomenon expressed by an action plan, resolution, oral or written order.

Depending on the scope of development, management decisions can use different forms of development: decree, law, order, order, instruction, act, protocol, instruction, contract, agreement, plan, contract, offer, acceptance, regulation, rules, model. Depending on the scope of implementation, management decisions can use different forms of implementation: prescription, persuasion, explanation, coercion, instruction, message, conversation, personal example, training, advice, meetings, sessions, report, business word, business games.

A management decision is a plan to resolve or eliminate a problem. Depending on the established terms and conditions of activity of subordinates, decisions may be:

· regulating - exclude independence and completely direct the activities of subordinates;

· orienting - to determine only the main points of activity, secondary problems are solved by subordinates independently;

For solutions strategic objectives management, strategic decisions are made that contain ways to implement tasks and the resources required for this. Strategic decisions are carried out through a set of tactical decisions for the practical implementation of subgoals provided for by the strategy. Strategic decisions are a set of rules that determine the general directions of the functioning and development of organizations, for example:

· assessment of the company's performance;

· interaction of the company with the external environment (carrying out appropriate competition policy, maintaining the share of sales in the product market by region);

· intra-organizational interaction between departments;

· operational regulation of current changes occurring in the organization’s activities.

Taking into account the long-term nature of strategic decisions, during their implementation there is a need to make adjustments related to current changes in the internal and external environment. This is ensured by the presence feedback between objects and subjects of management. Successful implementation of strategic objectives presupposes their close linkage with tactical decisions, which determine specific ways to implement strategies and the necessary line of behavior to achieve them.

The following requirements apply to management decisions:

· be real, i.e. focus on achievable goals;

· be realizable, i.e. not contain provisions that are unenforceable for various reasons;

· be carried out in real time, taking into account possible emergency situations;

· be resistant in efficiency to possible errors when selecting source data;

· be flexible when external or internal conditions change, i.e. provide for changes in goals and algorithms for achieving goals.

Management decisions have the following characteristic features:

· alternative - the ability to choose from several options;

· focus on the future;

· focus on the final results of the organization's activities;

· legality of decisions, managers must be vested with certain powers, which are recorded in official documents: agreements, contracts, regulations;

· innovativeness of methodology, technology, diagnostic and forecasting methods, organizational development parameters;

· socio-economic orientation;

· continuity due to the following properties of the management process: continuity, cyclicity, consistency, interconnectedness;

· the presence of integration, which is manifested in the impact of the solution on the structural parameters of the system and its main divisions;

· uncertainty in achieving the planned result and the possibility of losses;

· the presence of a synergistic effect, which manifests itself in the relationship between the main functions and process functions for decision making, providing an advantage in achieving the goal compared to a decision made outside the management process;

· reflectivity in the external environment (sectors of the economy, in the social, cultural, environmental spheres, public policy, standard of living of the population);

· personal aspect, the perception of the decision by subordinates is influenced by the authority of the leader.

The quality of management decisions, their successful implementation and obtaining a certain result depends on the combination of the following basic properties of management decisions:

· validity, which manifests itself in the need to take into account the entire set of factors and conditions associated with the development of a solution;

· efficiency, which shows the ratio of the expected and achieved economic and social effect, taking into account the costs of its development and implementation;

· timeliness, which is an important condition for effectiveness;

· consistency, which is expressed in compliance of the decision with regulatory documents and in agreement with previously made decisions;

· specificity, which manifests itself in a clear indication;

· simplicity, the solution should be simple in form and understandable in content.

The quality of the process of developing and implementing a management decision depends on: information, a set of management goals, development methods, management technology, the selected property of the development process, organizational audit, sets of objects included in the organization model, laws of management and organization, laws for the organization. In each specific situation the development of management decisions is carried out in specific conditions characteristic of a given situation, taking into account factors that have a direct or indirect impact.

Factors influencing the quality level of management decisions can be divided into two groups.

1. Factors of a situational nature associated with awareness of the problem, alternatives for its solution and their consequences, which act at the stage preceding decision-making and contribute to the formation of the problem. These include: study of the situation, analysis and forecasts of the situation, methods used, management organization, etc.

2. Behavioral factors: motives, value orientations, level of requirements, willingness to take risks, which are manifested in the behavior of the manager and his employees during the development of management decisions.

The performance of an enterprise depends on the quality of management decisions. They must meet certain requirements, be based on the prevailing economic conditions, and be adopted in compliance with organizational and psychological prerequisites.

1.2 Classification of management decisions

Classification of management decisions is necessary to determine general and specific approaches to their development, implementation and evaluation, which makes it possible to improve their quality, efficiency and continuity. Management decisions can be classified in a variety of ways.

The most common classification principles are:

1) by functional content;

2) by the nature of the tasks being solved (scope of action);

3) according to the management hierarchy;

4) by the nature of the development organization;

5) by the nature of the goals;

6) for reasons of occurrence;

7) according to the initial development methods;

8) according to organizational design.

Management decisions can be classified according to their functional content, i.e. towards general functions controls for example:

· planning decisions;

· organizational;

· controlling;

· predictive.

Typically, such decisions affect, to one degree or another, all management functions, but in each of them it is possible to identify a main core associated with some basic function.

Another principle of classification is related to the nature of the problems being solved:

· economic;

· organizational;

· technological;

· technical;

· environmental and others.

Most often, management decisions are related not to one, but to a number of tasks, to one degree or another having a complex nature. Based on the levels of the management system hierarchy, management decisions are distinguished at the BS level: at the subsystem level; at the level of individual elements of the system. Typically, system-wide decisions are initiated, which are then brought to the elementary level, but the opposite option is also possible.

Depending on the organization of decision development, the following management decisions are distinguished:

sole persons;

) collegial;

c) collective.

The preference for the method of organizing the development of management decisions depends on many reasons: the competence of the manager, the level of qualifications of the team, the nature of the tasks. resources, etc.

By the nature of the goals, the decisions made can be presented as:

· current (operational);

· tactical;

· strategic.

Based on the reasons for their occurrence, management decisions are divided into:

· situational related to the nature of the emerging circumstances;

· by order (order) of higher authorities;

· program related to the inclusion of a given management object in a certain structure of program-target relations and activities;

· proactive systems associated with the manifestation of initiative, for example in the production of goods and services, intermediary activities;

· episodic and periodic arising from the periodicity of reproductive processes in the system (for example, seasonality of agricultural production, timber rafting along rivers, geological work).

An important classification approach is the initial methods for developing management decisions. These include:

· graphical, using graphic-analytical approaches (network models and methods, strip graphs, block diagrams, decomposition of large systems);

· mathematical methods. involving the formalization of ideas, relationships, proportions, deadlines, events, resources;

· heuristics associated with widespread use expert assessments, development of scenarios, situational models.

According to the organizational design of management decisions they are divided into:

· tough, unambiguously defining the further path of their implementation;

· orienting, determining the direction of development of the system;

· flexible, changing in accordance with the conditions of operation and development of the system;

· normative, setting the parameters for the flow of processes in the system.

Since decisions are made by people, their character largely bears the imprint of the personality of the manager involved in their birth.

2. Practice of developing and making management decisions

2.1 Stages of developing management decisions

The process of developing management decisions can be represented as a circle around which the main stages revolve:

Rice. 3 Main stages of developing management decisions

Effective organization of management decisions allows you to achieve planned results.

Stage 1. Awareness of the need for a management solution. The need to make a management decision is associated with either a problem or an opportunity.

The problem arises when the organization's actual achievements are lower than planned, which means that some of its work projects require improvement.

Opportunity occurs when a leader sees the potential to achieve results beyond current ones.

Awareness of a problem or opportunity is the first stage of the process of developing a management decision and requires monitoring the parameters of internal and external environment worthy of the manager's attention.

Sources of information for understanding the need for a management decision are:

· financial reports,

· operational reports,

· unofficial sources,

· opinions on the state of current affairs of other managers and specialists, as well as their advice.

Stage 2. Diagnosis and situation analysis

Once a problem or opportunity comes to the manager's attention, there is a need to understand the details of the situation.

Diagnosis is the stage of developing a management decision, at which the manager analyzes the main cause-and-effect relationships of a particular situation.

You should not immediately move on to developing options for management solutions without first thoroughly studying the causes of the problem.

Kepner and Trego, who conducted large-scale studies of the development of management decisions by managers, recommended asking the following questions to clarify the underlying causes of events:

· How severe is the state of instability in which the company finds itself?

· When did it happen?

· Where did it happen?

· How did it come about?

· Who did this happen to?

· How quickly should the problem be resolved?

· What are the cause-and-effect relationships?

· What actions led to undesirable results?

Answers to such questions help to better understand what really happened and why.

For example, General Motors executives are trying to diagnose the underlying causes of the company's recent failures.

The problem is urgent because:

· arrived,

market share

· and the share price decreases,

· and the giant corporation itself is on the verge of bankruptcy.

Executives examine the variety of issues facing GM, determine the nature of the decline in key performance indicators, and consider the relationship between various factors, such as:

· changing consumer tastes,

· rising gasoline prices, making large cars less attractive,

· increase in pension contributions for employees,

· increased competition and increased machine production in low-wage countries such as China,

· presence of redundant production capacity and high costs

· poor central planning and ineffective control systems, which increasingly plunge the company into a state of crisis.

Stage 3. Development of options for management decisions

Once the problem or opportunity is recognized and analyzed, the manager begins to consider options for future action.

Thus, the next stage of the management decision development process is to generate possible alternative management solutions that will meet the needs of the situation and eliminate the identified shortcomings.

Research suggests that limited exploration of alternatives is a major cause of poor management decisions in organizations.

For programmable solutions that arise in response to regularly recurring organizational (current) problems, the search for feasible options for developing management solutions does not cause difficulties, since in fact they are already provided for by the rules and procedures of the organization.

However, non-programmable management decisions that are made in response to unique situations require the development of a new course of action.

For management decisions made under conditions of high uncertainty, managers can develop only one or two specific management solutions that will satisfactorily cope with the problem.

Alternative management decisions can be considered as tools for reducing the discrepancy between the current and desired results of the organization.

For example, to increase sales volumes, McDonald's executives considered options such as

· using “imaginary” buyers and conducting surprise checks to improve the quality of food and the level of service;

· motivating franchisees to invest in new equipment and new programs;

· conducting research and development outside the experimental kitchen-lab and encouraging franchisees to develop new dishes;

· closure of some retail outlets to eliminate the possibility of cannibalization of own sales, that is, the negative impact of sales of one product to the detriment of another product within the same enterprise and brand.

Stage 4. Choice the best option management decision

After developing several feasible options for management decisions, you need to choose one of them.

This stage involves selecting the most promising management solution from several possible ways actions.

The best option is the one that provides a management solution that is most consistent with the current goals and values ​​of the organization and allows you to achieve the desired results when minimum costs resources.

The manager tries to choose a management decision that is associated with minimal risk and uncertainty, although the right choice is also possible when focusing solely on goals and values.

The choice of the right management decision is largely determined by the personality of the manager.

The willingness to take on additional risk in the face of the possibility of a higher reward is called risk appetite.

The manager's decision in each specific case depends on the results of the analysis of profits and costs, which can be performed for any management decision.

Stage 5. Implementation of the selected management decision

The stage of implementing a management decision involves the use of managerial and administrative abilities and persuasion skills for the practical implementation of the chosen management decision.

The ultimate success of the chosen management decision depends on whether it can be turned into concrete actions.

Sometimes a management decision never becomes a reality due to the fact that the manager lacks the strength or resources to implement the plan.

To successfully implement a management decision, it may be necessary to hold a business meeting with people who are affected by the management decision, which means that the manager must have

· communication skills,

· ability to motivate employees and

· leadership qualities

When employees see that the manager does not forget about his management decisions and monitors the process of their implementation, they become more inclined to take positive actions.

If the manager lacks the ability or desire to implement the management decision made, then the chosen alternative cannot be implemented to the benefit of the organization.

Stage 6. Evaluation of the results of implementing a management decision and feedback

During the evaluation stage, managers collect information that tells them how successfully a management decision was implemented and whether it achieved its goals.

Feedback has great importance, because management decision making is an endless process.

2.2 Management decision making

An important task management accounting are the generalization and transmission of information useful for managers to make quality management decisions.

The development of effective solutions is a prerequisite for ensuring the competitiveness of products, the formation of rational organizational structures, carrying out the correct personnel policy, creating a positive image, etc.

By synthesizing various components, management decisions act as a way of constant influence of the control subsystem on the managed system, which leads to the achievement of set goals.

The process of making management decisions is an activity that requires highly qualified, practical experience, developed intuition. Many solutions are unique, and the process of their development cannot be regulated by strict rules. Nevertheless, it is possible to distinguish certain stages in the process of making management decisions.

1. Problem occurs.

2. Determination of alternative courses of action.

3. Analysis of the impact of each alternative on business transactions(costs, resource savings and financial results of business operations are calculated).

4. Decision making - choosing the best alternative.

5. Analysis of the consequences of decisions.

At all stages of the management decision-making process, the accountant provides the organization's management with the necessary information. For these purposes, certain accounting procedures and a special reporting system must be used. Decision making involves a comparative assessment of a number of alternatives and the selection of the optimal option that best suits the organization's goals.

All reasons for choosing one of the options under consideration are divided into two groups: quantitative and qualitative factors.

Quantitative factors take a numerical expression (costs, expenses). Qualitative ones cannot be measured quantitatively (product quality, level of satisfaction of consumer tastes, stability of relationships with suppliers, etc.). When making decisions, both factors must be analyzed.

The process of developing a management decision consists of comparing two or more possible options for solving a problem and choosing the best one.

The relevant approach allows, in the process of making a management decision, to concentrate attention only on relevant information, which facilitates and speeds up the development process the best solution.

Relevant costs and revenues are the expected future costs and revenues that differ across alternatives.

Relevant information is essential for decision making, i.e. this is data that should be taken into account. Irrelevant information is irrelevant data about costs and revenues. They can lead to making an erroneous decision, reducing efficiency and increasing the complexity of the decision-making process.

Two rules of relevance.

Information for the manager must provide the right decisions.

Information should be presented in a form that is easy to understand and should not be redundant.

When developing and making management decisions, it is advisable to use the following methods.

1. Traditional methods are used when decisions are made based on personal experience or based on the results of special economic calculations (used in typical standard situations). The advantages of these methods are simplicity and provenness, but the disadvantage is the lack of solutions when production becomes more complex.

2. Economic-mathematical methods are based on the use of mathematical and economic methods in solving practical problems(economic and statistical methods, methods of economic cybernetics, optimization methods and econometrics).

These methods are used to a limited extent, since it is not always possible to build a mathematical model of the problem; they do not take into account social, organizational and psychological factors, which cannot be measured mathematically.

3. Special methods:

· methods of expert assessments, which are based on a quantitative assessment of phenomena and processes ( brainstorming);

· improvement of expert assessments with consistent refinement of the task;

· heuristic methods that are based on experience and logic.

These methods are effective in solving problems under conditions of risk and uncertainty.

4. System-targeted methods are used to solve related strategic problems. These include:

· methods of system analysis;

· decomposition - a method of dividing a system into parts to identify the relationships between them;

· system diagnostics - a method of studying each of the elements to identify bottlenecks;

· program-targeted methods (after defining a global goal, a program for achieving it is developed in the form of a tree of goals and measures are determined to achieve lower-order goals).

2.3 The role of the manager in the process of making management decisions

Three main types of workers are involved in the process of preparing and making decisions: system analysts, managers themselves, as well as experts involved in resolving individual issues on certain problems, in cases where system analysts are not able to independently answer the questions that arise during the process of developing a solution .

The main work on developing a solution is carried out by system analysts. The concept of a systems analyst is interpreted in a broad sense and includes management staff preparing the solution, specialists from information and analytical services, economic and other departments of the organization. Systems analysts must be fully proficient modern methods analysis; managers must have a systematic approach to decision making and have a general understanding of the methods and tools used in the process of preparing and making decisions.

The manager plays the main role in decision making. He makes decisions based on his preferences and is responsible for them.

In the decision-making process, the following main functions of a manager can be distinguished.

Firstly, the manager must manage the decision-making process by organizing this process, attracting the right specialists, providing their work with the required resources, determining the timing of decision-making, and monitoring their work.

Secondly, the manager puts forward a problem for solution, participates in its specification and selection of evaluation criteria. The ability to correctly define and pose a task in an extremely complex and contradictory situation is an essential responsibility of a leader, the main creative part of his work.

Third, he does the hard work of making the decision itself.

Fourthly, the manager organizes the implementation of the decision, managing the work at the stage of implementing the decision.

Fifthly, the manager must take part in the decision-making process on certain issues of developing a decision as a specialist, an expert. Indeed, a qualified manager can understand certain issues better than systems analysts (defining a problem, setting goals, identifying various priorities, etc.). The manager's preference system is the main one when choosing the best solution. It is better to familiarize system analysts with certain aspects of this system before making a final decision.

The development of a solution is carried out jointly by the manager and system analysts. One of the most important tasks of systems analysts is to assist the manager in identifying the goals of his decision-making activities - what they are or what they should be. Exchange of views helps clarify old goals and identify new goals. System analysts help to correctly outline approaches to defining goals, to carry out the process of identifying them more efficiently, applying certain logical principles, introducing, where possible, quantitative methods of assessment.

Involving managers in analytical research of problems is important factor success. The participation of the manager in the formation of criteria, definition and ranking of goals has a decisive impact on the implementation of results. In 80% of cases, developments carried out with the involvement of managers are found practical use. This is 2 times higher than the value of the implementation rate of developments without their participation.

The manager must make decisions based on accurate, verified data, on options worked out in detail by system analysts, in the variety of which best option rarely detected at first glance. And the manager’s intuition is used only in addition, but not as a replacement for the results prepared by system analysts. System analysts consider decision-making as an independent process, but for managers, decision-making is only part of the entire management process, where it is necessary to take into account both objective and subjective factors influencing the solution of the problem.

The manager selects the only solution option from those proposed by system analysts. He must promptly request analysis data from system analysts, even if incomplete. A decision not made on time is a more serious mistake, fraught with more serious consequences, than a decision made but containing some errors.

The decision is a direct product of the labor of a manager of any level and rank. The functions of preparing, making and implementing decisions underlie many organizational and procedural schemes, regulations and job descriptions that determine the content of the activities of individual organizations and their personnel. The rational use of labor by decision makers and system analysts has a decisive influence on the effectiveness of management decisions.

3. Improving the management decision-making process

3.1 Application of a scientific approach to the decision-making process

The process of making management decisions, as one of the main aspects of the management activities of an organization, is present at every level of management and, in addition, is an integral component in the processing of almost any information within a given organization. In addition, the decision-making process is a kind of dominant, that is, it acts as the most important and obligatory element of managerial functioning, performed at the stage of the emergence of the categories “What and how to do?” The higher the quality of the management decision made (regardless of the volume of implementation: on the scale of the organization itself or in a separate part of it), the more effective the functioning of the organization as a whole will be. This factor is directly related to the level position organizational management, i.e. the significance and weight of the decision made and implemented directly affects not only the economic and technical performance indicators, but also the socio-psychological aspects of the work “ human resource» organization, and therefore increased demands are placed on the decision-making process (including various types of integrated approaches being proposed). Thus, knowledge of the methods and techniques of the scientific approach to the act of decision-making contributes to the maximum extent to the optimal and effective process of their implementation in the functioning of the organization.

The head of the team participating in the development and adoption of decisions makes a choice of one or another option subjectively, based on purely personal preferences (experience, evaluative visions), thereby accepting full responsibility for the possible negative consequences of adoption this decision. The presence of a subjective factor is reinforced by a certain degree of uncertainty, as well as by the nature of thinking and the psychological orientation of the decision-maker. At the same time, the leader, along with the volitional function, performs a mental act, during which analysis, evaluation, synthesis of possible solutions, explanation and development of the optimal and rational informed decision. At the next stage, the decision maker (without taking into account the position at the hierarchical level) carries out a motivated process, caused by the influence on the people around him to perform a certain type of activity, during which the possible outcomes of the developed decision options are assessed from the point of view of motivation for the behavior of the decision maker. The motivational process leads to the development of the necessary attitudes, which, in turn, contribute to the formation of an indicative position of the decision-maker’s environment, which directly affects the behavioral aspects of this environment. The necessary attitude, together with the indicative position, forms the foundation that determines the development of the volitional function of the decision-making process.

The process of making a motivated decision is more fully realized on the basis of a thought process justified by logical constructs using certain methods and means: integrated calculations, mathematical modeling, data architecture, physical and mathematical experiments, etc. In addition, it is necessary to remember about subconsciously -logical combination, when the prevalence of logical or intuitive thinking (intuition and logic are the basis for decision-making) directly affects the result of decision-making. Thus, in the process of developing and making management decisions, it is necessary to distinguish three main approaches:

1. Intuitive approach.

2. Judgment-based approach.

3. Rational approach.

When using an intuitive approach to developing and making decisions, the initial motivation for choice is based solely on the feeling of the correctness of the chosen solution option. At the same time, the manager does not carry out any mental activity in order to assess positive and negative factors and take into account possible variations, analyze them and select a specific, only correct solution. Most often, for certain reasons, the leader does not fully take into account the current situation, but only makes his choice. That is, without making any logical construction, relying on his own experience, the decision-maker implements the process of cognition of truth - makes a choice based on intuition.

Rice. 4. The main components of the development and decision-making process with an intuitive approach

These methods (for example, the brainstorming method) are widely used in practice when solving complex problem problems. Their use is appropriate in the formation of strategic plans in social, scientific, political spheres or in the process of developing consultative recommendations on unexplored, poorly differentiated issues. Among the situations that arise, the solution of which is appropriate based on an intuitive approach, the following are distinguished:

· situations caused by a fairly high degree of uncertainty;

· undifferentiated, limited to a certain period of time for developing and making a decision and accompanied by a disturbed psychophysical state of the decision-maker;

· unknown, previously unheard-of situations, characterized by the absence of a specific mechanism for solving the problem;

· the presence of mutually exclusive alternatives to solve the problem;

· the need to develop and make decisions of a personal nature.

These types of problem situations determine the fact that an intuition-based approach is used in most cases at the highest level of management. Among the indisputable advantages of this approach are simplicity, speed of decision-making, and general accessibility; and the disadvantage can be considered the low quality productivity of the decisions made due to the greater likelihood of making irrational decisions. In improving the quality of decision-making based on an intuitive approach, the development of intuitive and logical abilities plays a significant role, which is to a certain extent facilitated by methods developed and used at the modern level in psychology, cybernetics, and medicine.

The approach based on judgments, at its core, has sufficient positive experience in selecting and implementing the most effective mutually exclusive solutions in problem situations similar to this one. Consequently, existing positive experience in solving problematic problems can serve as a model for developing and making decisions in the current situation, provided that similar results are obtained. This approach recommended for use in cases where similar, recurring situations arise, which are the main component of activities at the middle level of organization management. They are identified as standard, and when developing solutions main goal is to reduce the likelihood of errors, as well as to minimize the time spent on development and decision-making.

Rice. 5 The process of developing and making decisions using a judgment-based approach.

This approach is ineffective when rare, exceptional, non-elementary, complex situations arise, since in this case the manager does not have the appropriate experience on the basis of which it is possible to choose a decision justified by logical thinking. In addition, the excessive nature of using this approach when developing and making decisions contributes to the development of monotonous, straightforward thinking in the decision-maker in the area of ​​making a certain type of decision, which largely negates new, possibly more effective, decision options. In the future, this process consciously or unconsciously limits the range of both the development of new areas of activity and possible ways of development of the organization as a whole.

The use of a rational (optimal) approach in the process of development and decision-making is due to the implementation of an objective in-depth analysis. To find a solution to the problem that has arisen, a certain sequence of performing the relevant stages is necessary. The process of developing and making rational decisions can be depicted as a five-step structured chain:

1. Diagnosis of the problem

2. Formulation of restrictions and criteria for decision making.

3. Identifying alternative solutions

4. Evaluation of alternative solutions

5. Final choice of solution

Rice. 6 Stages of a rational approach to the process of development and decision making

Diagnosing a problem begins with consciously identifying the problems that arise and the opportunities that are available. The bulk of the problems that arise include: insufficient profits, low quality, productivity indicators and product sales; conflicts and staff turnover. On the one hand, identifying specific factors helps to identify the problem as such, and on the other hand, it helps to identify the true root causes of the overall decline. effective activities organizations. In such cases, an analysis of relevant information is carried out (regardless of its nature: external or internal) in order to further determine the causal relationships and features of the emergence of a problem situation in the organization. Analysis of the problem of a general decline in the effective performance of an organization allows not only to identify the causal nature of the issue, but also to develop a specific solution to it, taking into account subsequent (possible) changes (variations).

Thus, the choice of approach to the process of developing and making management decisions, regardless of the scale of their implementation, determines and has a direct impact on the quality functionality and effectiveness of the entire organization, which confirms the necessary nature of generating, evaluating, and analyzing decision options, both at the highest level of management of the organization and and in the activities of middle management.

3.2 Methods and models for optimizing management decisions

Optimizing a solution is the process of searching through many factors that influence the result. The optimal solution is the most effective solution among all alternative options, selected according to some optimization criterion.

Since the optimization process is expensive, it is advisable to use it when solving strategic and tactical problems. Operational problems must be solved using, as a rule, simple, heuristic methods.

Optimization methods: analysis, forecasting, modeling.

A model is a representation of a system object or idea in some form distinct from the integrity itself. It is a simplified image of a specific life (managerial) situation. In other words, the models reflect real events, circumstances, etc. in a certain way. There are a number of reasons for using a model instead of trying to directly interact with the real world:

· complexity of the real world (the real world of an organization is extremely complex and the actual number of changes related to a specific problem significantly exceeds the capabilities of any person and can be comprehended by simplifying the real world using modeling);

· experimentation (there are many management situations in which it is desirable to try and experimentally test alternative solutions to a problem;

· orientation of management to the future (it is impossible to observe a phenomenon that does not yet exist and may never take place, as well as to conduct direct experiments. However, many managers strive to consider only real and tangible ones, and this must ultimately be expressed in their turn to what something apparently.

Modeling is the only systematic way to date to see options for the future and determine the potential consequences of alternative solutions, which allows them to be objectively compared).

Building a model is a process. The main stages of this process are problem statement, construction, validation, application and updating of the model.

Like all tools and methods, models can lead to errors. The effectiveness of the model can be reduced by a number of potential errors:

· unreliable initial assumptions;

· information restrictions;

fear of users

· excessive cost

Typical applications of linear programming in production management:

· integrated production planning (drawing up production schedules that minimize total costs, taking into account costs due to changes in interest rates, specified restrictions on labor resources and inventory levels);

· product range planning (determining the optimal product range, in which each type has its own costs and resource requirements);

· routing of product production (determining the optimal technological route for manufacturing a product, which must be sequentially passed through several processing centers, with each center operation characterized by its own costs and productivity);

management technological process(minimizing the yield of chips when cutting steel, waste leather or fabric in a roll or panel);

· inventory regulation (determining the optimal combination of products in a warehouse or storage);

· scheduling production (drawing calendar plans minimizing costs, taking into account the costs of maintaining inventories, paying overtime and external orders);

· product distribution planning (drawing up an optimal shipment schedule taking into account the distribution of products between manufacturing enterprises and warehouses, warehouses and shops retail);

· determining the optimal location of a new plant (determining the best location by estimating the costs of transportation between alternative locations for the new plant and its supply and sales locations finished products);

· calendar planning of transport (minimization of costs of supplying trucks for loading and transport vessels to loading berths);

· distribution of workers (minimizing costs when distributing workers among machines and workplaces);

· material reloading (minimizing costs when routing the movement of materials reloading equipment, for example, forklifts, between plant departments and delivering materials from an open warehouse to places of their processing on trucks of different carrying capacity with different fuel characteristics).

Forecasting is a method that uses both accumulated experience and current assumptions about the future to determine it.

Quantitative methods can be used for forecasting when there is evidence that past activity has followed a pattern that can be continued in the future, and when available information is sufficient to identify statistically significant trends or relationships. In addition, the manager must know how to use a quantitative model and remember that the benefits of making a more effective decision must outweigh the costs of creating the model. Two typical quantitative forecasting methods are time series analysis and causal modeling.

Conclusion

As a result of writing this course work, we can say that the goal was achieved. From this work, the following conclusions can be drawn.

Decision making is a process leading to the emergence of a product of managerial labor, which is an important part of management activity. According to leading management experts, decision making is both a science and an art. When making a decision, the manager uses professionalism, intelligence, knowledge, intuition, experience, and the results of an analysis of a specific situation.

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15. The concept of a management decision and its place in the management process. Classification of management decisions

A management decision is a product of managerial work, and its adoption is a process leading to the emergence of this product. Decision making is a conscious choice from available options for a course of action that allows you to achieve an existing goal. A decision is the form in which the control influence of the subject of management on the object of management is carried out. Therefore, the quality of management decisions is a criterion for the effectiveness of a manager.

The solution must meet a number of requirements. The main ones are validity, clarity of formulas and steps, real feasibility, timeliness, cost-effectiveness, efficiency (the degree to which the goal is achieved in comparison with the consumption of resources).

As a rule, decisions should be made where a problem situation arises; For this, managers at the appropriate level must be given the appropriate powers, at the same time assigning them responsibility for the state of affairs at the managed facility. A very important condition for the positive impact of a decision on the work of the organization is its consistency with those decisions that were made earlier (both vertically and horizontally of management (here, of course, we do not mean the case when the task is to radically change the entire policy development). Programmable solutions are solutions to recurring and clearly defined problems. As a rule, these are standard tasks that arise repeatedly in the organization, about which there is sufficiently reliable and reliable information, as well as ready-made, previously developed and successfully applied rules and procedures.

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Intuitive decisions are choices made solely on the basis of a feeling that they are right. The decision maker does not weigh the pros and cons of each alternative; he does not evaluate the situation, but relies on insight and feeling.

Judgment-based decisions are choices driven by knowledge and experience.

Rational decisions do not depend on past experience. The process of their adoption involves choosing an alternative that will bring maximum benefits to the organization.

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The management process is carried out on the basis of decisions. A management decision is the result of a manager’s specific management activities. Management decisions are the main means of influence by which the normal functioning of systems is ensured. The decision determines the program of action to achieve the goal, the stages of work and the sequence of their implementation, methods and means, the range of performers, the boundaries of their responsibility and authority, and the deadlines for completing the work.

The overall level of management effectiveness of the organization as a whole and its personnel largely depends on the quality of decisions made. Since any decision leads to consequences that affect the results of the financial, economic and social activities of the enterprise, this imposes great responsibility on the manager when making it. Management decisions should be distinguished from other types of decisions.

The term “decision” refers to a volitional action consisting in determining the goal of an action and how to achieve it.

A management decision has a number of distinctive features:

it should be aimed at the system of organizing collective labor;

management decisions are made not by every employee, but only by the subject of management (manager or collegial body);

it is adopted only in conditions of a pressing problem and is aimed at eliminating obstacles to the functioning of the managed system or for the purpose of its development (improvement);

Most management decisions are declarative and binding: they cannot have an alternative;

Management decisions and the process of making them require scientific knowledge, contain elements of art and are creative in nature.

However, not all decisions made by managers are creative. Among them there are many repeat ones. In practice, it is necessary to transfer past decisions, if they were successful, to similar situations, but the best solution will be the one that takes into account new factors.

In any creative activity, the role of intuition is great, but in the practice of making management decisions, intuitive knowledge is rarely found in its obvious forms.

It is very important for a manager to have confidence that the decision-making procedure is correct. Obviously, if a programmed procedure becomes incorrect, decisions made through it will be ineffective, and management will lose the respect of its employees and those outside the organization who are affected by the decisions made.

Thus, a decision is a choice of an alternative.

Responsibility for making important management decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially pronounced at the highest levels of management. However, managers of any rank deal with property that belongs to other people, and through it they influence their lives. If a manager decides to fire a subordinate, the latter may suffer greatly. If a bad employee is left unchecked, the organization can suffer, negatively impacting its owners and all employees. Therefore, a leader, as a rule, cannot make ill-considered decisions. Before understanding how a manager can act more rationally and systematically, let's take a closer look at the universality of decision making, its organic relationship with the management process and some characteristics of management decisions.

Like the communication process, decision making affects all aspects of management.

Decision making is part of a manager's daily job. Or in other words: “Decision making is an integral part of managing an organization of any kind.

More than anything else, competence in this area distinguishes the manager from the non-manager and, more importantly, the effective manager from his ineffective colleague.” Each leader plays a role in interpersonal communication, information exchanges and decision making.

In the area of ​​decision making, Mintzberg identified four leadership roles (Figure 2).

Since the nature of a manager's work depends on the level of management at which he is located, there are differences in the nature of decisions made at different levels.

However, all these roles are performed by every manager to one degree or another from time to time.

Figure 2 - Manager roles

In today's complex, rapidly changing world of organizations, many alternatives are at the disposal of managers, and in order to formulate a goal for a group of people and achieve it, numerous questions must be answered. Each management function is associated with several general, vital decisions that require implementation. Some of them are listed in Figure 3.

A management decision is a choice that a manager must make in order to fulfill the responsibilities associated with his position (the choice of an alternative made by the manager within the framework of his official powers and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization). Decision making is the basis of management.

The purpose of a management decision is to ensure movement towards the objectives set for the organization.

Therefore, the most effective organizational decision will be the choice that will actually be implemented and will make the greatest contribution to achieving the final goal.

Decision making is one of the main components of any management process.

The decision-making process, although seemingly simple, is very difficult. It contains quite a lot of subtleties and underwater reefs that are well known to professional managers.

However, there is something in common that is characteristic of any decision-making process, no matter where it takes place. This is the single core that forms the development and decision-making technology used in any organization.

Preparation of decisions is carried out on the basis of the totality of information about the situation, its careful analysis and assessments.

Figure 3 - Management functions

During the decision making process great attention focuses on the use of expert assessment methods designed to work with both quantitative and qualitative information.

The main purpose of expert technologies is to increase professionalism, and, consequently, the effectiveness of management decisions.

There are different ways of representing the decision-making process, which are based on different approaches to management: systemic, quantitative, situational, etc.

The main attention is paid to the situational approach, since it most fully reflects the problems arising in management activities, is universal and, in essence, contains the main methods associated with making management decisions and used in other approaches.

Let's consider the main stages of the management decision-making process. A flowchart of the control process is shown in Figure 4.

Preparing to develop a management solution

The first block of stages in developing a management decision includes the following stages:

Obtaining information about the situation;

Setting goals;

Development of an assessment system;

Analysis of the situation;

Diagnosis of the situation;

Development of a forecast for the development of the situation.

Let's look at them in more detail. Obtaining information about the situation.

Modern technologies for making management decisions, including the possibility of expert assessment, allow the decision maker (DM) to take into account the main aspects of the “situation-DM” interaction when developing and making management decisions due to the possibility of using qualitative and quantitative assessments, both formalized and informal components of the situation in which the decision maker carries out active management influences.

To adequately represent the situation, as a rule, not only quantitative data, but also qualitative data are used. This is achieved through expert technologies widely used in the decision-making process.

The information obtained about the decision-making situation must be reliable and sufficiently complete. Unreliable or insufficiently complete information can lead to erroneous and ineffective decisions. Setting goals

The position of the organization in the future is determined, first of all, by the personal assessments and judgments of those responsible for making key decisions.

Determining the goals facing the organization is of great importance. Only after they have been identified can the factors, mechanisms, patterns, and resources influencing the development of the situation be determined.

Figure 4 - Main stages of developing management decisions

Upon acceptance important decisions, the consequences of the implementation of which can play a significant role, the goals that the organization strives to achieve must be clearly presented. Methods for forming goal trees have been developed and are being used to determine the hierarchical structure of the goal system, and criteria trees to assess the degree of achievement of goals.

When defining the goals of an organization, it is important to clearly imagine possible ways to achieve them.

Development of an assessment system

In the process of developing a management decision, an adequate assessment of the situation and its various aspects are of great importance, which must be taken into account when making decisions that lead to success.

To adequately assess one or another aspect of a situation, it is often advisable to form indices or indicators that characterize the state of the situation depending on changes in the values ​​of the factors that determine its development. For example, the Dow Jones index (indicator) is an index of shares that allows one to evaluate the movement of exchange resources and characterizes the state of activity on the exchange.

Setting priorities is fundamental when strategic planning, when developing strategy and tactics for enterprise development, etc.

Analysis of the situation

Having the necessary information about the situation and knowing the goals that the organization strives to achieve, you can begin to analyze the situation.

The main task of analyzing the situation is to identify the factors that determine the dynamics of its development.

First, a substantive analysis is carried out and the main points are established at a qualitative level, allowing one to identify factors to which the situation is sensitive to changes in the degree and nature of their influence.

To identify the factors that determine the development of the situation, specially developed methods can be used, such as factor and correlation analysis, multidimensional scaling, etc.

Diagnosis of the situation

When analyzing the situation, it is important to highlight the key problems that need to be addressed first when purposeful management process, as well as the nature of their influence. This is the task of diagnosing the situation.

Based on the analysis of the situation, the most sensitive points that can lead to undesirable developments and the problems arising in connection with this are determined. Solving these problems is necessary to prevent undesirable developments in the situation.

Adequate diagnosis of the situation greatly contributes to making effective management decisions.

Development of a forecast for the development of the situation

A special role in decision-making is played by problems associated with assessing the expected development of the analyzed situations, the expected results of the implementation of the proposed alternative solutions.

Without predicting the course of events, it is impossible to manage. Since when using expert information, not only quantitative, but also qualitative assessments are of great importance, traditional methods for calculating forecasts cannot always be applied.

In addition, in many complex situations we do not always have sufficiently reliable statistical information necessary to develop a forecast.

The reasons listed above make actual problem application of expert forecasting methods, more focused on working with both quantitative and qualitative expert assessments.

Promising are, in particular, the possibility of using the developing method of expert curves, with the help of which the dynamics of the predicted development of the object of examination can be described.

The second block of stages for developing a management decision includes:

Generating alternative solutions;

Selection of main options for management actions;

Development of scenarios for the development of the situation;

Expert assessment of the main options for control actions.

Let's look at them in more detail.

Generating alternative solutions

Generating alternative solutions, control actions, etc. can be carried out either directly or through special expert procedures.

Procedures for generating alternative options may include both the special organization and conduct of examinations using methods such as “brainstorming”, etc., and the creation automated systems generating alternative options in complex but fairly structured cases.

When generating alternative options for management decisions, information about the decision-making situation, the results of analysis and assessment of the situation, the results of its diagnosis and forecast of the development of the situation under various alternative options for the possible development of events should be fully used.

Selection of main options for management actions

After alternative options for management influences have been developed, presented in the form of ideas, concepts, a possible technological sequence of actions, possible ways of implementing the proposed solution options, their preliminary analysis must be carried out in order to weed out obviously unviable, uncompetitive options or options that are obviously inferior to others, also proposed for consideration.

Development of scenarios for the development of the situation

Scenarios for the expected development of the situation play an important role in making management decisions. The main task of developing scenarios is to give the decision maker the key to understanding the situation and its most likely development.

One of the main tasks when developing a scenario is to determine the factors characterizing the situation and its development trends, as well as to identify alternative options for the dynamics of their change.

In order for the idea of ​​the expected development of the situation to be adequate, as a rule, it is not enough to limit ourselves to considering factors that are only of a quantitative nature. Factors of a qualitative nature should also be considered.

The development of scenarios for the development of a situation is carried out mainly using technologies of situational analysis and expert assessment, which make it possible to take into account and analyze both quantitative and qualitative information.

It should be noted that, as a rule, it is necessary to consider the most probable alternative options for expected changes in the situation, both in the presence of control actions and in their absence.

Analysis of several alternative options for the development of a situation, as a rule, turns out to be more informative and contributes to the development of more effective solutions.

The most common method of expert assessment in the formation of alternative scenarios is the “brainstorming” method in combination with special methods of using analytical information.

Expert assessment of the main options for control actions

At this stage of developing a management decision, there is already quite a lot of information about the main alternative options for management influences and about the most probable scenarios development of the situation when using them.

If the previously selected main alternative options for management influences require deeper study for an adequate comparative assessment, then it must be carried out.

By this point, an evaluation system should also be formed, including the main factors (particular criteria) influencing the development of the decision-making situation, assessment of their comparative importance, scales for determining the values ​​of factors when comparative assessment main alternative control actions.

The third block of stages of development and implementation of a management decision includes:

Collective expert assessment;

Decision making by decision maker;

Development of an action plan;

Monitoring the implementation of the plan;

Analysis of the results of the development of the situation after managerial influences.

Let's look at them.

Collective expert assessment

When making important management decisions, it is advisable to use collective expertise, which ensures greater validity and, as a rule, greater efficiency of the decisions made.

In addition to the fact that the developed management decision in this case receives a multifaceted assessment and argumentation, it is also interesting to compare the different points of view of specialists on the comparative effectiveness of the developed alternative solutions.

It is important to form expert commission, which would include truly competent specialists in all the main aspects of the problem being analyzed, preferably with experience as experts, so that it is ensured effective interaction experts, if provided for in the examination technology.

Collective expertise is one of the main tools for making important management decisions.

Decision making by decision maker

Results of examinations on comparative assessment of alternative solutions or the only solution, if the development of alternative options was not envisaged, they go to the decision maker.

They serve as the main basis for making management decisions.

Since decision-making is not only a science, but also an art, the decision-making prerogative belongs to the decision-maker.

Along with the results of the examination, when making a decision, the decision maker takes into account Additional information about the object of decision-making, which can only be accessible to him as a leader.

Having the right of final choice and bearing full responsibility for the decision made, the decision maker gives preference to one or another alternative solution.

It should be noted that when making complex, multidimensional decisions, the role of value judgments of specialists who have a professional knowledge of the problems on which the decision is being made increases significantly.

Thus, success is achieved by the optimal combination of experience and knowledge of highly qualified expert specialists and the skill of decision-makers to correctly understand and assess the situation and sometimes make the only right decision.

Developing an action plan

Decision is made. However, an equally important task is to achieve its successful implementation.

To do this, it is necessary to develop an action plan, since a lot depends on the selected set of actions, the sequence of their implementation, the planned deadlines and, perhaps, the most important thing - the resources that ensure the implementation of the actions, the performers who will carry out these actions.

The progress of the plan must be constantly monitored, and any changes in conditions or deviations in the implementation of the plan must be analyzed.

Monitoring the implementation of the plan

Ensuring the effective functioning of the organization requires continuous monitoring of the implementation of adopted action plans.

Modern management technologies, using computer support, make it possible to simultaneously monitor the progress of a significant number of activities in the field of marketing, production, supplies, etc.

Analysis of the results of the development of the situation after managerial influences.

The implemented plan of management actions or a fragment of it that is of interest should be subjected to careful analysis in order to assess the effectiveness of the management decisions made and their implementation.

This analysis should determine:

Weaknesses and strengths of the decisions made and plans for their implementation;

Additional opportunities and prospects opening up as a result of the changes that have occurred;

Additional risks that may be involved in achieving the intended goals.

An effective manager must draw appropriate conclusions and take them into account when making subsequent decisions. Of course, it is better to learn not from your own mistakes. But if your own mistakes have already been made, then not learning from them and not drawing the appropriate conclusions is doubly unreasonable.

Thus, analysis of the results of management influences, in addition to “science for the future,” can serve as a basis for new assessment capabilities of the organization, and not necessarily in the direction of their reduction.

If the results of the analysis make you think seriously about the possible development of the situation and doubts arise about the correctness of the goals set, then it is possible to rethink and change the organization’s strategy.

Thus, the prospects for the development of the industry for the production of welding electrodes are associated with the fact that with the use welding technologies produces more than half of the gross national product of industrialized countries. Welding is an under-the-radar but key technology in the world's leading industries. Overall in Russia industrial production electrode production is already carried out by more than 90 enterprises in various industries.

Inexpensive technological mini-lines for the production of electrodes are now offered by dozens of companies, so the number Russian manufacturers growing quickly.

IN Kursk region only two enterprises. Engaged in the production of welding electrodes for metallurgy enterprises. Construction companies etc. One enterprise is located in Kursk - this is ZAO Promservis, and the second is in Zheleznogorsk, ZAO Elektrod. Key to competitive successful development Russian electrode industry is the price/quality ratio of its products.

An important aspect in the activities of any enterprise is the decision-making process. The overall level of management effectiveness of the organization as a whole and its personnel largely depends on the quality of decisions made. Since any decision leads to consequences that affect the results of the financial, economic and social activities of the enterprise, this imposes great responsibility on the manager when making it.